North East Monsoon began over South East India

The Northeast Monsoon has finally began after one of the most delayed withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon though a rapid one which is in progress. TN Coast along adjoining AP coastal line to get Easterly On and Off rains though the Quantum might be considerably less.

Models continue to hint a system over the bay of bengal making a possible Landfall over CAP-NAP coast around October 25th. Though its too early to decide its landfall location, the sytem is expected to skirt along NTN coast possibly giving rains to the same.

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Kyaar Cyclone Analysis

Why Kyaar became one of the strongest cyclones in the Arabian Sea ? Thanks to record breaking + Indian Ocean Dipole resulting in an above normal Sea Surface Temperature and also due to considerably less wind shear Kyaar was able to intensify rapidly as a Cat 4 tropical cyclone. However, Kyaar is expected to weaken as the wind shear is expected to increase in the coming days. KYAAR IS THE SECOND STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ARABIAN SEA Gonu cyclone from 2007 maintaining the First position. Kyaar's track ? ------------------------------------------------- The track of Kyaar is doubtful as some models hinting on Pakistan landfall while some others on Oman landfall. However, Kyaar is expected to weaken and possibilities of it dissipating in the sea also exists. Even if Kyaar makes a landfall it is not expected to cause any major damage. Sources : IMD • WUNDERGROUND

NEM ONSET 2020 : FORECAST

Topic by : HariHaran (Rainman) Will This Year Ends With Bountiful North-East Monsoon? North East Monsoon has set over most of the parts of southern India with easterlies hitting the East Coast! This year is one of the most hyped when it comes to NEM rains. To understand the current weather conditions we have to looks for the favorable weather dynamics which we look for the upcoming NEM season. As per the the models by looking for MJO it will takes it’s path to Phase 6-7 for a while as MTC having a huge support of planetary waves alignment. But conditions looks favorable for he weakening of MJO progression over MTC - WPAC zones and it is expected to move AO for a while and begin it’s initial new set of MJO phase at Phase soon. By looking at the models, the chart provided seems to have some initial errors as well that we have to notice as well. As looking for the “Standing Wave” which is highly expected to weaken over MTC zones and it is expected to reverse it’s phase to WIO. This w...

Is NEM Waiting to show its Glory?

North East Monsoon has been disappointing for the most parts of tamilnadu so far with chennai receiving only 350 mm against an average of 850 mm. We have three systems in Bay of Bengal so far one being a low which went along the east coast with North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha taking its major share, The second one being the low which later developed into Cyclone Maha which gave a major part of Tamilnadu's NorthEast Monsoon rain quantum, and the third one being Cyclone Bulbul which fell a prey to Western disturbance. With a dull Monsoon so far, Models expect a system forming in bay of Bengal around November End due to Mjo visiting Indian ocean. Widespread rains to Tamilnadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh is the outlook given by models so far while the location of the system is projected to be somewhere around Srilanka and Gulf of Mannar. While ECMWF Ensembles partly hinting towards system intensification after entering Arabian Sea.

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