Okay Weather

Rains possible in KTC on New Year 2020 due to interaction of dipping strong mid level trough and incoming moist easterlies at lower levels  which will produce Thunderstorm. Rain chances are there in January first week. chennai also has chance to catch one or two spells. Courtesy : Jaswant Weatherman

North East Monsoon was not upto the mark for North Tamilnadu especially the State Capital, Chennai. With initial forecast being a Normal Quantum from the monsoon, the reality was different. Take a look at the following pictorial explanations by a Weather Blogger, Santhakumar.

NORMAL NORTH EAST MONSOON ( NEM 2019) AHEAD FOR ENTIRE TAMIL NADU INCLUDING NORTH TAMIL NADU ====================================== PLEASE READ THE FULL POST FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING ====================================== After a lull November in most parts of TN , rains to pick up pace from tonight over entire coastal Tamil Nadu as strong easterly winds filled with moisture to hit us for a week with possible low or trough over southwest bay.... do not miss this exciting period of NEM as this is going to be most active phase ... ===================================== i have already mentioned in my previous post MJO to enter our basin in few days which is a boon for us... this two weeks we should watch out for a extraordinary rainfall over DELTA,RAMANADAPURAM , TUTICORIN,AND AREAS NEAR WESTERN GHATS (mostly above 350mm) .... few coastal region will see EXTREME rainfall accumulation between NOVEMBER 29 - DECEMBER 6 .... nothing to panic... so i am sure that SOUTH TN, WESTERN TN( KONGU BEL...

North East Monsoon has been disappointing for the most parts of tamilnadu so far with chennai receiving only 350 mm against an average of 850 mm. We have three systems in Bay of Bengal so far one being a low which went along the east coast with North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha taking its major share, The second one being the low which later developed into Cyclone Maha which gave a major part of Tamilnadu's NorthEast Monsoon rain quantum, and the third one being Cyclone Bulbul which fell a prey to Western disturbance. With a dull Monsoon so far, Models expect a system forming in bay of Bengal around November End due to Mjo visiting Indian ocean. Widespread rains to Tamilnadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh is the outlook given by models so far while the location of the system is projected to be somewhere around Srilanka and Gulf of Mannar. While ECMWF Ensembles partly hinting towards system intensification after entering Arabian Sea. 

The remnants of Matmo which entered bay of Bengal from South China Sea has evolved into a Cyclone "BulBul". Rapid intensification was seen in the last 24 hours and the system is expected to make Landfall around Odisha/West Bengal surroundings. Rain chances for Coastal Tamilnadu continues to be very low for the next 7-8 days. However, Rains are expected from November 15th as easterlies will be back in bay of Bengal while the traces of " BulBul" disappear.

Why Kyaar became one of the strongest cyclones in the Arabian Sea ? Thanks to record breaking + Indian Ocean Dipole resulting in an above normal Sea Surface Temperature and also due to considerably less wind shear Kyaar was able to intensify rapidly as a Cat 4 tropical cyclone. However, Kyaar is expected to weaken as the wind shear is expected to increase in the coming days.  KYAAR IS THE SECOND STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ARABIAN SEA  Gonu cyclone from 2007 maintaining the First position. Kyaar's track ? ------------------------------------------------- The track of Kyaar is doubtful as some models hinting on Pakistan landfall while some others on Oman landfall. However, Kyaar is expected to weaken and possibilities of it dissipating in the sea also exists. Even if Kyaar makes a landfall it is not expected to cause any major damage. Sources : IMD • WUNDERGROUND     

A weak cyclonic circulation/weather disturbance persists over south east Bay of Bengal. It is expected to track westwards towards Srilanka as a possible Low pressure area in the next 24-48 hours. And in the subsequent 24-48 hours to track further westwards into Comorin sea/Gulf of mannar and become awell marked low. The present break in rains is expected to end early next week as the low might spread some showers over entire  coastal TN.  The cyclonic storm Kyarr ( named by Myanmar ) in the East Central  Arabian sea  is expected to track West North West towards Oman/ Yemen coast in the coming days. - CYCLOMANIAC

The low in Bay of Bengal crossed chennai's latitude on 22nd October Early morning and gave widespread rains of moderate quantum. The low impacted South Andhra Pradesh and gave very heavy rains and it is now expected to skirt along NAP-Odisha. North Tamilnadu to see slight reduction in rainfall activity for the next couple of days. We had  an awesome start to Northeast Monsoon with small but considerable increase in lake storage levels.  Models hinting on a system during the end of this month and the path is favourable for North Tamilnadu as of now but it is too early to come into conclusion. We will get clearer picture as days goes on.