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NORMAL NORTH EAST MONSOON ( NEM 2019) AHEAD FOR ENTIRE TAMIL NADU INCLUDING NORTH TAMIL NADU ====================================== PLEASE READ THE FULL POST FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING ====================================== After a lull November in most parts of TN , rains to pick up pace from tonight over entire coastal Tamil Nadu as strong easterly winds filled with moisture to hit us for a week with possible low or trough over southwest bay.... do not miss this exciting period of NEM as this is going to be most active phase ... ===================================== i have already mentioned in my previous post MJO to enter our basin in few days which is a boon for us... this two weeks we should watch out for a extraordinary rainfall over DELTA,RAMANADAPURAM , TUTICORIN,AND AREAS NEAR WESTERN GHATS (mostly above 350mm) .... few coastal region will see EXTREME rainfall accumulation between NOVEMBER 29 - DECEMBER 6 .... nothing to panic... so i am sure that SOUTH TN, WESTERN TN( KONGU BEL...

North East Monsoon has been disappointing for the most parts of tamilnadu so far with chennai receiving only 350 mm against an average of 850 mm. We have three systems in Bay of Bengal so far one being a low which went along the east coast with North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha taking its major share, The second one being the low which later developed into Cyclone Maha which gave a major part of Tamilnadu's NorthEast Monsoon rain quantum, and the third one being Cyclone Bulbul which fell a prey to Western disturbance. With a dull Monsoon so far, Models expect a system forming in bay of Bengal around November End due to Mjo visiting Indian ocean. Widespread rains to Tamilnadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh is the outlook given by models so far while the location of the system is projected to be somewhere around Srilanka and Gulf of Mannar. While ECMWF Ensembles partly hinting towards system intensification after entering Arabian Sea. 

The remnants of Matmo which entered bay of Bengal from South China Sea has evolved into a Cyclone "BulBul". Rapid intensification was seen in the last 24 hours and the system is expected to make Landfall around Odisha/West Bengal surroundings. Rain chances for Coastal Tamilnadu continues to be very low for the next 7-8 days. However, Rains are expected from November 15th as easterlies will be back in bay of Bengal while the traces of " BulBul" disappear.