Skip to main content

NEM ONSET 2020 : FORECAST

 Topic by : HariHaran (Rainman)

Will This Year Ends With Bountiful North-East Monsoon?

North East Monsoon has set over most of the parts of southern India with easterlies hitting the East Coast!

This year is one of the most hyped when it comes to NEM rains.
To understand the current weather conditions we have to looks for the favorable weather dynamics which we look for the upcoming NEM season.

As per the the models by looking for MJO it will takes it’s path to Phase 6-7 for a while as MTC having a huge support of planetary waves alignment. But conditions looks favorable for he weakening of MJO progression over MTC - WPAC zones and it is expected to move AO for a while and begin it’s initial new set of MJO phase at Phase soon. By looking at the models, the chart provided seems to have some initial errors as well that we have to notice as well.

As looking for the “Standing Wave” which is highly expected to weaken over MTC zones and it is expected to reverse it’s phase to WIO.

This word will bring a nightmare to the fellow Enthusiasts as I was describing about the “Great Western Disturbance”. For to describe it’s role on the upcoming NEM we have to look for AO index. But interestingly as per the models, it expected to take +ve phase during Nov 1st week and expected to weaken gradually. By seeing this we can see some signs of Western Disturbance which gonna dominate over Himalayas Adjoining Pakistan as well.

Looking for Nino 3.4 As per the models it is highly expected to being in weak La Nina phase throughout the year and it is highly expected to be in La Nina phase till Summer 2021.

So, overall concluding all the factors there is some high chances of Normal to Above normal rainfall For the NEM zones Especially NTN -SAP belt Kerala and parts of Delta Districts as well.
STN is likely to get near Normal rains according to the conditions. But we can expect some good rains on Nov 1st week as well due to favorable conditions.

This year will be highly dependent on System Based rains only. So enjoy the rains and be prepared.

 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Kyaar Cyclone Analysis

Why Kyaar became one of the strongest cyclones in the Arabian Sea ? Thanks to record breaking + Indian Ocean Dipole resulting in an above normal Sea Surface Temperature and also due to considerably less wind shear Kyaar was able to intensify rapidly as a Cat 4 tropical cyclone. However, Kyaar is expected to weaken as the wind shear is expected to increase in the coming days.  KYAAR IS THE SECOND STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ARABIAN SEA  Gonu cyclone from 2007 maintaining the First position. Kyaar's track ? ------------------------------------------------- The track of Kyaar is doubtful as some models hinting on Pakistan landfall while some others on Oman landfall. However, Kyaar is expected to weaken and possibilities of it dissipating in the sea also exists. Even if Kyaar makes a landfall it is not expected to cause any major damage. Sources : IMD • WUNDERGROUND     
Post a Comment
Read more

Weak Low to Form in Bay of Bengal

A weak cyclonic circulation/weather disturbance persists over south east Bay of Bengal. It is expected to track westwards towards Srilanka as a possible Low pressure area in the next 24-48 hours. And in the subsequent 24-48 hours to track further westwards into Comorin sea/Gulf of mannar and become awell marked low. The present break in rains is expected to end early next week as the low might spread some showers over entire  coastal TN.  The cyclonic storm Kyarr ( named by Myanmar ) in the East Central  Arabian sea  is expected to track West North West towards Oman/ Yemen coast in the coming days. - CYCLOMANIAC
Post a Comment
Read more

Cyclone Bulbul Starts its Journey

The remnants of Matmo which entered bay of Bengal from South China Sea has evolved into a Cyclone "BulBul". Rapid intensification was seen in the last 24 hours and the system is expected to make Landfall around Odisha/West Bengal surroundings. Rain chances for Coastal Tamilnadu continues to be very low for the next 7-8 days. However, Rains are expected from November 15th as easterlies will be back in bay of Bengal while the traces of " BulBul" disappear.
Post a Comment
Read more