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NEM ONSET 2020 : FORECAST

 Topic by : HariHaran (Rainman)

Will This Year Ends With Bountiful North-East Monsoon?

North East Monsoon has set over most of the parts of southern India with easterlies hitting the East Coast!

This year is one of the most hyped when it comes to NEM rains.
To understand the current weather conditions we have to looks for the favorable weather dynamics which we look for the upcoming NEM season.

As per the the models by looking for MJO it will takes it’s path to Phase 6-7 for a while as MTC having a huge support of planetary waves alignment. But conditions looks favorable for he weakening of MJO progression over MTC - WPAC zones and it is expected to move AO for a while and begin it’s initial new set of MJO phase at Phase soon. By looking at the models, the chart provided seems to have some initial errors as well that we have to notice as well.

As looking for the “Standing Wave” which is highly expected to weaken over MTC zones and it is expected to reverse it’s phase to WIO.

This word will bring a nightmare to the fellow Enthusiasts as I was describing about the “Great Western Disturbance”. For to describe it’s role on the upcoming NEM we have to look for AO index. But interestingly as per the models, it expected to take +ve phase during Nov 1st week and expected to weaken gradually. By seeing this we can see some signs of Western Disturbance which gonna dominate over Himalayas Adjoining Pakistan as well.

Looking for Nino 3.4 As per the models it is highly expected to being in weak La Nina phase throughout the year and it is highly expected to be in La Nina phase till Summer 2021.

So, overall concluding all the factors there is some high chances of Normal to Above normal rainfall For the NEM zones Especially NTN -SAP belt Kerala and parts of Delta Districts as well.
STN is likely to get near Normal rains according to the conditions. But we can expect some good rains on Nov 1st week as well due to favorable conditions.

This year will be highly dependent on System Based rains only. So enjoy the rains and be prepared.

 

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